’s chief clean forecasters released a new PV installation calculation which anticipates seeing 2019 deliver the highest level of new solar capacity installed over the course of one year. The expectation is that annual installations are going grow by 18 percent and will reach 123 gigawatts (GW). Wow!

It hasn’t been easy over the last year and a half to predict the global solar PV market. Why? Mainly because everything is based off guesses which don’t necessarily account for mid-year shifts in policy, such as the one in 2018 in China.

What Exactly Happened in China?

China’s government, back in June, made an announcement that in 2018, it would cap new solar projects and lower the solar Feed-in Tariff, without any additional general solar capacity planned for the remainder of the year.

Of course, this move caused analysts to adjust their estimates of another hugely prosperous year for the global solar industry. The expectations for China’s solar industry did not ineludibly come to pass; consequently, IHS Markit changed its solar PV forecast for 2018 upward to 40 GW, after it had dropped earlier estimates from 50 GW to 38 GW.

China accounts for somewhere between 40 and 50 percent of new solar capacity installed, but this is something that is starting to change. As per the most recent solar forecast from IHS Markit for 2019, roughly 67 percent of installed global solar PV generation capacity is going to come from places outside of China. This solar report was published by Edurne Zoco, Ph.D – IHS Markit’s research director, solar and energy storage.

The expectation, according to IHS Markit, is that Egypt, Argentina, Spain, South Africa and Vietnam together will represent roughly 7 percent of 2019’s total solar installations. This translates to 7GW of total demand growth. There will be solar increases in the United States, too, as demand is expected to increase by just under 30 percent year-over-year as creators are looking to finish a share of their pipeline projects before the end of 2019.

Get Ready for of New Solar Capacity

As a whole, IHS Markit anticipates yearly global solar PV installations in 2019 to increase by 18 percent and to end up with 123 GW of new solar capacity installed by the end of the year.

In addition to all of this, a third of solar capacity additions in 2019 will still be connected to China as a result of policy decisions made through the second part of 2018 – there is a strengthened belief in China’s solar industry. Of course, this past fall, China’s National Energy Administration detailed information regarding phasing out power generation subsidies for solar technologies, and making an effort to lessen the fiscal stress subsidies were placing on the country.

Not long after detailing this information, China’s National Energy Administration discussed possibly expanding the solar target of the country to 210 GW by the year 2020, highlighting the possibility of pushing it up to 270 GW. Of course, this would hugely impact global solar capacity figures.

Edurne Zoco, Ph.D discussed how module costs fell in the second half of 2018, however, current strong demand outside China, in places like Vietnam, Mexico and Spain, has put the brakes on price erosion for shipments in the early part of 2019.

A Market Shift

In a nutshell, we might be seeing a market shift, if you will, away from China. Overcapacity is expected to ease up. There has been greater than 20 percent growth in terms of yearly solar PV installations in 45 country markets, as per Zoco. Where does the United Stands stand? It is, at present, the second biggest solar PV market, and solar installations will still grow throughout the New Year.

Solar news is worth paying attention to. Consider the changes being made across the globe in relation to clean energy. The moves currently taking place, and expected to take place in the future, can make a world of difference for the world we live in. Stay in the know – learn what is going on with and other sources of clean energy. You might even discover changes being made in your own neighborhood!

Sources:

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/27/ihs-predicts-global-solar-installations-to-reach-123-gigawatts-in-2019/

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/12/19/2019-pv-installations-to-hit-123-gw-global-balance-shifting-says-ihs/

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